Diesel price forecast 2027: what hauliers can expect after the winter

There is no official diesel price forecast for 2027 in the EU. Crude forecasts put Brent at 84 USD per barrel in 2027 (US EIA, 2026-10-06) and about 79 USD (World Bank, 2026-10-28), below 2026 averages of 96 and 91 USD. Pump diesel also depends on national fuel taxes.

What do the 2027 oil forecasts say about diesel prices?

Both dated public forecasts checked for this article expect cheaper crude in 2027 than in 2026: the US Energy Information Administration projects a Brent average of 84 USD per barrel in 2027, against 96 USD per barrel in 2026, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released 2026-10-06 . The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook of 2026-10-28 is lower still, at about 79 USD per barrel against about 91 USD per barrel in 2026.

Both sources tie the decline to supply recovering after the Gulf disruption, which holds only if that risk stays contained. The next EIA outlook is due 2026-11-10, so these figures can change.

Neither source publishes a 2027 diesel pump price for Europe. Crude is one input among several, because refining margins, exchange rates and taxes all sit between a barrel of Brent and the number on a station display. Any single EUR per litre figure for 2027 would be a guess, so this article does not give one.

Which tax changes could move pump diesel in 2027?

Two dated decisions matter. Germany cut the energy tax on diesel and petrol by 14.04 cents per litre from 2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31, according to the Bundestag text archive . Unless it is extended, the old rate returns on 2027-01-01, which raises the tax part of German pump prices whatever crude does. Our guide explains what the German diesel tax cut means for hauliers .

The second decision is ETS2, the EU carbon price on road fuels. It was postponed by one year to 2028 in the Council and Parliament deal on the 2040 climate target of 2025-12-10 , so no EU-wide carbon cost reaches diesel on 2027-01-01. The ETS2 guide for road freight covers what changes in 2028. Other countries have temporary cuts ending around the turn of the year too. Check each country where you refuel.

How should hauliers budget fuel for 2027?

Budget with a range instead of a single price. First, take the current diesel price for each country you refuel in from the live diesel prices by country , which come from the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin and update every Thursday. Second, add the tax changes that apply to those countries from 2027-01-01. Third, run a higher case, because the World Bank adverse scenario shows how far crude can move against the baseline. Fourth, check whether your customer contracts index fuel to a published price, since that decides who carries the difference.

Frequently asked questions

Will diesel be cheaper in 2027?

Crude forecasts are lower for 2027 than for 2026, but pump diesel also depends on refining margins and national taxes, and the German tax cut ends on 2026-12-31 unless extended. No official pump forecast exists, so plan with a range.

What will the Brent oil price be in 2027?

The EIA expects an average of 84 USD per barrel and the World Bank about 79 USD per barrel, both published in October 2026. The World Bank adverse scenario is 105 USD per barrel.

Is there an official EU diesel price forecast?

No. The EU Weekly Oil Bulletin from the European Commission reports current prices only. Any 2027 pump price you see quoted is an estimate by a third party.

When does ETS2 start for road fuels?

ETS2 starts in 2028 after a one-year postponement agreed on 2025-12-10. It adds no EU-wide carbon cost to diesel in 2027.

Test each fuel scenario against your routes with the freight calculator for cost per trip .