Transport company bankruptcies 2027: will next year finish off small hauliers?

No 2027 figures exist yet, but little in the data points to relief. Allianz Trade expects German insolvencies to stay at about 25,900 in 2027, the same as 2026, and Germany's transport sector already has the highest insolvency rate of any sector, 71.6 per 10,000 firms in the first half of 2026.

Will transport company bankruptcies keep rising in 2027?

Every 2027 statement is a forecast. The newest Allianz Trade outlook, dated 2026-10-27, expects about 25,900 German insolvencies in 2026 (+8% on 24,064 in 2025) and about the same in 2027, then 5% fewer in 2028, as reported by Logistik Heute .

Table sources: the Eurostat release of 2026-08-17 , Destatis press release No. 325 of 2026-09-11 and Statbel figures as reported by trans.info on 2026-09-03 .

The 2026 base is already high, and the Q2 2026 EU transport bankruptcy figures show transport failing faster than the all-sector rate. Eurostat revises the latest quarter for three quarters, so first figures may be too low.

The other side carries some weight. The April 2026 Allianz forecast saw Western Europe insolvencies falling 3% in 2027, though the October update was gloomier. The EIA outlook of 2026-10-06 puts Brent at 84 USD per barrel in 2027 against 96 USD in 2026, about 12.5% lower by our arithmetic. That is a forecast, not a pump price.

Why do small hauliers feel it first?

Several fixed costs step up on 2027-01-01, whatever the size of the fleet. The German minimum wage rises from 13.90 to 14.60 EUR per hour (+5.0%) under MiLoV5 . The Dutch truck charge reaches 20.6 ct/km for Euro VI vehicles over 32 t once a 22.3% discount ends on 2026-12-31, and the German diesel energy-tax cut of 14.04 ct per litre ends the same day, with no extension found as of 2026-11-07. Compare the 2027 truck cost changes for the full list.

In Belgium, failure data already skews small: almost 80% of bankrupt road-haulage operators had fewer than 6 trucks or vans , although that is TLV's 2025 data, not 2026.

What should a small haulier do before 2027-01-01?

Reprice first: add fuel and toll clauses to contracts before 2027-01-01, so the cost steps above reach the customer instead of your margin. Then update the cost per km budget with the new figures: build your 2027 cost per km budget with the template. Check customer payment terms and credit exposure before you accept new contracts. If your drivers run cabotage or cross-trade loads in Germany, those days count as posted work, so the new 14.60 EUR minimum applies: check the German minimum wage 2027 changes .

Frequently asked questions

Are trucking bankruptcies rising in Europe?

Yes. Eurostat recorded EU transport bankruptcy declarations up 11.4% in Q2 2026 on Q1, and Belgium set a record from January to July 2026. The Q3 2026 release is expected in mid-November 2026.

Which countries have the most transport company bankruptcies?

No EU-wide country ranking is published in the data used here, and the two figures below use different measures, so they cannot be ranked against each other. Germany's transport sector had 71.6 insolvencies per 10,000 firms in H1 2026, the highest of any German sector, and Belgium recorded 524 transport and storage bankruptcies from January to July 2026, a record.

Why do small trucking companies go bankrupt?

No single cause is established in the data used here. In Belgium, almost 80% of bankrupt operators in TLV's 2025 data ran fewer than 6 vehicles, and several fixed costs step up on 2027-01-01, from wages to tolls.

Calculate your 2027 truck cost per km with the freight calculator before you quote the next contract.